Sunday, August 31, 2008
Our votes will matter
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Robison of Roanoke has worked on the presidential campaigns of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush.
Now that the Olympics are over, we can focus on our own political domestic Olympics, otherwise known as the presidential race, which, like the Olympics, we hold every four years. But with the prelude of the presidential primaries, the race seems never ending, perhaps explaining why most of us slept during this year's marathon, now in the home stretch between John McCain and Barack Obama. However, with the Democratic convention over and the Republican convention starting, the sprint to the finish is about to begin.
It will be a short election cycle as Labor Day to Election Day is only 65 days, and each candidate has that limited period of time to get his new message -- honed and refined -- out to the two groups of targeted voters who count: the swing voters and those voters of one party or the other who are not particularly smitten or enthused with their party's nominee.
Nowhere is this more important than in Virginia with its 13 electoral votes, along with three or four other states (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Colorado), that most observers believe to be the critical states that will ultimately propel one candidate or the other over the threshold of the 270 electoral votes needed.
Virginia can be broken down into roughly four distinct geographic-political regions: Northern, Eastern-Tidewater, Central (Richmond-Charlottesville corridor) and Western (everything west of Charlottesville and south of Winchester). Most observers would predict Northern Virginia, the most populous, to be safely in the Obama column and Eastern Virginia, the third most populated area of the state, with its heavy military emphasis, to be fertile McCain territory. Central Virginia is a toss-up given its blue-blood Virginia lineage, yet it also contains a heavy concentration of minority voters. However, it is the least populated geo-political area of the state, and in one regard (vote count), it is the least important.
Surprisingly, that leaves the sparsely populated Western Virginia corridor as the part of the state most likely to tip the scales one way or the other in securing the margin of the popular vote necessary statewide to win Virginia. Although geographically large, it is the second most populated region and, perhaps more important, being relatively homogenous, it is easier to target (and bombard) voters with a consistent message.
This is not to imply that we should expect McCain and Obama each to spend a day a week in this part of the state between now and Nov. 4, as both candidates will rely heavily on the media and surrogates to deliver their message. Obama may have an advantage. First, he has indicated he will forgo the spending limits imposed by accepting public funds and instead fund his campaign through private donations. This will allow him to spend as much money as he can raise legally through individual contributions and give him potentially more money for media buys. Second, Obama is likely to benefit from Mark Warner's senatorial campaign coattails. The Obama camp astutely tapped the former Virginia governor to give a keynote address on the second night of the convention.
Finally, Obama is an eloquent speaker with soaring rhetoric and an appealing message of hope. As long as he can stay on script and not get bogged down in having to fill in the details -- and the starry eyed media has yet to come out of its collective mesmerized trance -- he will have an advantage with his positive message and Kennedyesque comparisons.
This is not to imply that McCain has no chance in Virginia. Quite the contrary, as Virginia has voted Republican in every presidential election over the last 40 years (since 1964). Second, and perhaps more important, McCain has a credible record. If he uses it wisely, he cannot only show his independence, but also his leadership in getting ahead of issues, even by often taking unpopular stands. He has been an outspoken opponent of pork barrel projects, and despite a legendary temper has even proved that he can work in the Senate with his Democratic colleagues (Russ Feingold, D-Wis.) in passing campaign finance reform legislation. Given McCain's reputation for being a maverick, his experience in Washington is not to be discounted, precisely because he, like Obama, can run as an outsider, but McCain can highlight that he is the one who has been battle tested.
In late December 2007 -- when it was assumed by most knowledgeable political insiders of both parties that the 2008 presidential election would be between Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney or Rudy Giuliani -- I was asked by some old Washington friends what I thought. At that time I, like they, thought Clinton would be the inevitable Democratic nominee and as no one on the Republican side had any traction. In fact, McCain was losing traction.
I responded with what I thought was a safe: "It doesn't matter who the Republicans nominate, as the Democrats will win the White House. And the only chance the Republicans have is if they nominate John McCain, and he can only win if the surge strategy in Iraq works."
Little did I know then that the surge strategy would work or that either McCain or Obama would ultimately be their respective party's nominee. After the somnolence of the primaries, we may have a race after all and a sprint in Virginia, with Southwest Virginia playing a prominent role in determining the outcome. So, it is time to wake up and pay attention as my vote, your vote, and your neighbor's vote may make a difference.
