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Sunday, May 11, 2008

Strong candidate to emerge from long campaign

Bill Larson

Larson is a senior politics major at Washington and Lee University from Wilmington, Del. He was the advisory board liaison for W&L's 2008 Democratic Mock Convention.

The negative campaigning is tearing the party apart! Hillary is tearing the party apart! Hillary must go! Really? Is what you hear over and over on cable news true? The current competition for the nomination actually gives Democrats a real and better chance at bringing an enlightened statesman or stateswoman to the helm and taking back the White House.

Alexander Hamilton tells us that our constitutional system tries to ensure we have presidents who are "pre-eminent for ability and virtue." A brief nomination process does not give us a chance to pick the candidate with all the necessary skills. The longer process we are witnessing in the Democratic Party allows the American people to learn about the candidates and their qualifications.

Many Republicans are happy to see their nominee fly under the radar, but Sen. John McCain has almost been forgotten. Did you know he wants to throw Russia out of the G8? He said it more than a month ago, but no one knows. This is because if you can even find McCain in a newspaper, you have to turn to page A16. Meanwhile, Sens. Obama and Clinton have been on the front pages day after day. Republicans will have to wait until shortly before the election for McCain's vetting and just hope there are no November surprises.

The elongated process increases the Democrats' chance of having the strongest general election candidate. The competitive primary has led the candidates to raise money like never before. They have more contributors than could be imagined before the race. Once people give money to a candidate, they feel invested and are likely to keep donating. Contributors will continue to give record amounts to Clinton or Obama for the general election, giving the Democratic nominee a substantial advantage over McCain.

This primary process has led to increased intensity and numbers for Democrats. In Pennsylvania, a key swing state, Democrats added 300,000 voters to their party, nearly half of whom are new voters. The growth of the Democratic Party has outshined the Republican Party nationwide as well. Not only are there more Democrats, but they are actually voting. The Democratic primaries and caucuses have seen record turnouts.

Obama is still the heavy favorite for the nomination and he will be better prepared to take on McCain in the fall because of the nomination battle. In order to secure the nomination, Obama needs to answer a few questions. He needs to better address and put an end to the Rev. Wright problem, show he wants to fight for the presidency and increase his support among working-class whites.

Obama is new to the national political scene and was not fully vetted in his uncompetitive election. The controversy over Wright shows Obama needs to improve his response skills; better that he learns these skills before he goes to battle with the Republicans.

Clinton appealed to working-class whites in Pennsylvania by showing she will fight for them. Obama has lately appeared aloof and needs to refresh his message and attitude. He must show the American people he wants to be president and wants to fight for change. If Obama can make these changes, he will show he knows the way to win and will be poised to defeat McCain in the fall.

Clinton is the much less likely Democratic nominee. Over the past two months, Clinton has shown she is a fighter and has considerable appeal to swing voters in battleground states. Her road to the nomination requires her to continue to appeal to swing voters and for Obama to falter.

If Clinton wins the nomination it will likely mean that she wins West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico and that she surprises Obama in states in which he is favored. To win these states, Clinton will have to do well with Hispanics and working-class whites, two groups Democrats need to win the White House.

Nominee Clinton will be poised to win the general election, because she will have strengthened her appeal with swing voters and she will have saved the party from a weak nominee. If Obama is going to fall, Democrats need it to be before the general election. If he can survive Clinton, then he can survive McCain.

The American people have shown the pundits do not know everything. Give the American people time to look at the candidates and they will pick the most enlightened statesman or stateswoman. Pundits need to stop calling for an end to the nomination battle until after June 3.

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