The shock of change

Futurist Alvin Toffler is one of my favorite thinkers and writers. He is always ahead of his time. More than 20 years ago, Toffler coined the term "third-wave" thinking to characterize those who used unfolding information to advance understanding in a knowledge-based society. My favorite saying is " the illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn."

I’ve thought a lot about Toffler’s third-wave thinking since the recent flooding of Victory Stadium. Clearly, this "act of God" provided visual evidence that rehabilitation of the old stadium is not economically, socially or morally feasible. Yet, policymaking and ethics are often separated in the political calculation when citizens and lawmakers bring heavy emotional baggage to the decision-making process. When this occurs, any notion of a common ethos or public good goes out of the window.

I have always opposed the renovation of Victory Stadium (see my May 2004 column ) and believed that a new sports/entertainment complex would better serve the needs of Roanoke citizens. If the letters to the editor recently appearing in The Roanoke Times are indicative, many other Roanokers now also believe that our taxpayer dollars can be better spent. Simply put, we know that renovation of Victory Stadium will give literal meaning to the old economic concept of "sunk costs."

Many of these citizens were formerly supporters of renovation. But, as the saying goes, "a picture is worth a thousand words," and seeing field and some of the bleachers in Victory Stadium under water gave powerful visual validation to what the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers have long said: the facility cannot be protected from flooding. These citizens are in the "unlearning" phase of 21st century literacy. I am hoping that local politicians and members of the citizens committee studying the stadium situation will soon attain that level of literacy as well.

I’ve always been intrigued by those who want to save the old structure and have used Dr. Mindy Fullilove’s explanation of "nostalgia" to help me better understand their motivations. Nostalgia comes from two Greek words meaning "a return home" and "pain."

Fullilove, a professor of psychiatry at Columbia University, notes that losing a place that represents the accumulation of many friendships and much history can trigger feelings of nostalgia and result in severe emotional distress, and even clinical depression.

Theories about nostalgia argue for the benefits of stability. "Psychological conservation" is at the apex in this managerial hierarchy. This is the intellectual and emotional beacon that anchors those who want to preserve Victory Stadium.

Yet, this type of stability seems a utopian idea in a world of rapid, continuous environmental change. We no longer live in a "second wave" world where change is slow and predictable. Roanoke’s citizens and politicians will not attain Toffler’s relearning stage of literacy until we first accept this difficult but undeniable reality.

As Toffler and others note, change can be frightening and disorienting. His 1970 book, Future Shock, was eerily accurate in predicting the changes that societies would face at the end of the 20th century and on into this millennium. The stadium situation in Roanoke is an example of the type of wrenching emotional "catch-up" communities have to pay when they value psychological conservation over unfolding technological, social and economic realities.

Even in the "first wave" of modern societal development, change was difficult to accept and established elites went to great lengths to hide new knowledge from the masses. Economist Thomas Sowell provides this powerful illustration: Magellan’s voyage proved that the world was round, as it set out to do, but also proved more that it intended. When the ship returned to Spain, its log showed it was a Saturday -- but when the crew went ashore, they discovered it was Sunday. Scholars called in to discover this baffling discrepancy concluded that it indicated that the Earth was spinning on its axis. The king ordered the log burned. He understood that the issue was not just about an isolated fact, but was a question of undermining part of the foundation under a whole superstructure of beliefs supporting existing institutions, societies, and ways of life.

Contemporary elites react to information that threatens their underlying superstructure of beliefs in the same way as the king of Spain did in Magellan’s times. They heap scorn on knowledge that contradicts their beliefs. They libel those who disagree with them. They are hostile to those who would supplant a familiar mental world with a more relevant vision. They are desperate men. They are, in Toffler’s words, illiterate.

Fullilove argues that while not all situations require slow remediation (for instance, the Victory Stadium issue), all situations demand attention to the human cost of change. Her notion is that there should be public policy and social measures in place to "reconstitute order" after change has occurred. She states that "While the rebuilding is going forward, people must also attend to the emotional needs to mourn the lost place and bond to the new place. Rituals for the old place, as well as rituals for the new place, are essential in this process."

Given her analysis, the new sports complex should remain a venue for both William Fleming and Patrick Henry high school football games. This would allow for the reestablishment of a health promoting familiar habitat. New bonding rituals such as annual outdoor concerts should also be quickly established in the new space.

However, a joint venture with Roanoke County may not satisfy the "place identity" needs of either group of citizens. The lingering question of "Whose complex is it anyway" will not allow for needed identity attachment to naturally occur in such a collaborative venture.

Too much time and energy has been expended debating whether Victory Stadium should be renovated. It shouldn’t. Rather, resources should be devoted to better understanding why people are so emotionally attached to the old structure and the development of interventions that deal with those psychological barriers in a healthy manner.

The flood served as a catalyst for the unlearning of established beliefs concerning renovation of the stadium for many citizens. City administrators now appear to be leading us in a relearning period and providing multiple interpretations on the possibilities of a new complex. That’s a good thing. The quicker we relearn, the quicker we become literate citizens in a third-wave world.