Challenges past, challenges future

There was a time in this country when an election analysis could begin with the phrase, “The votes have all been counted.” But since the 2000 presidential election in Florida and the recent voting booth snafu here in Roanoke, even this statement has to be qualified. Still, there are some interesting matters to discuss.

First, let us take a look at the Grandin Court problem, where the official state Board of Election results still show no votes for Republican Alice Hincker, even after a number of voters alerted the Elections Board that they had voted for Hincker in this precinct. In an exchange of e-mails involving an election official and Alice Hincker’s campaign manager, the official insisted (probably correctly) that the discrepancy did not effect the outcome of the election, while acknowledging that Roanoke's voting machines have been falling apart for years.

The official’s statement about the city voting machines is cause for concern. If one machine malfunctioned, it is possible that others did, too. If there have been problems with the city voting machines for years, it means every close election in Roanoke during those years now has a shadow of doubt about it.

The Grandin Court problem highlights one of the dirty little secrets of election technology: the most reliable way to cast ballots is also the most low-tech way, which is using paper ballots. If voting boxes are made of transparent material, if they are shown to be empty at the start of the voting day, and if official observers for each candidate are on duty throughout the voting day, and also present during the counting, then there is no technological glitch that can foul up the voting process.

This system is used in elections all over the world. In much of Latin America, for example, where new democracies absolutely require honest elections to survive, they use paper ballots and extensive labor from observers. Former President Jimmy Carter’s election center in Atlanta happily provides unbiased and disinterested observers to fledgling democracies; perhaps the Carter Center would be willing to help out in Roanoke.

This brings us to our second topic, which is why Harris won. At first blush, this does not seem to be a difficult question; Roanoke is, after all, a predominantly Democratic city. It gave more than 60 percent of its votes to Mark Warner in 2001, and about 54 percent to Al Gore in 2000. In fact, a better way of stating the question is why Mayor-elect Harris got so many fewer votes than his Democratic colleagues.

Harris won for two reasons: first, he did significantly better than David Bowers did four years ago in some strong Republican precincts in Roanoke. Harris won all five Raleigh Court precincts, both South Roanoke precincts, and two Williamson Road precincts. Second, he also neutralized the Mac McCadden vote by doing much better than Bowers in South Roanoke, where McCadden ran strong in 2000. Overall, McCadden’s vote was consistent. McCadden got nearly the same number of votes (within 10) in six precincts, and his percentage of the vote was nearly the same in a number of others.

These results mean that Harris managed to cut into the base of both his Republican and his independent opponents. In part, this was because he successfully presented himself as a pro-Victory Stadium candidate, even after taking several contradictory stands on this issue. This spring’s election in Roanoke was, first and foremost, a referendum on the future of Victory Stadium.

Harris’s success in drawing support from all over Roanoke should bode well for his ability to persuade City Council to address Roanoke’s present and future challenges. For even if somehow the stadium issue were instantly resolved, other problems will remain. Roanoke’s public schools will not be renovated and updated as easily as Victory Stadium. And if young people continue to leave Roanoke at the pace they are now, even a state-of-the-art Victory Stadium will often be empty and dark.

In this regard, it is unfortunate that Mayor-elect Harris, on election night, chose to take one last swipe at Alice Hincker, by saying that “one of my opponents” ran an “honorable” campaign, and “I thank him for doing so.”

When Roanoke most needs unity of leadership and purpose, the new leader of Roanoke Democrats felt the need to play politics. If Harris begins his term by persuading City Council to play politics with the open council seat, it will be a long four years.