Gov. Warner: deceiving his way to the top

It is now official: George Will, a prominent conservative columnist, penned a column speculating on the possibility of Gov. Mark Warner running for president in 2008. Someone like Warner, Will says, may permit the Democratic Party to actually compete in the South once again. Before Warner starts sending out invitations to his Inaugural Ball, however, he may wish to have a brief talk with “Vice President” John Edwards of North Carolina.

The speculation about Warner in 2008 reminds me of the formation of the United Nations in 1945. Since the UN’s founders could not do anything about the Cold War, they focused on fixing hunger, poverty and prejudice. Or, as one observer put it, the UN, having given up on preventing World War III, focused its attention on preventing World War IV. Similarly, Mark Warner speculating on 2008, relieves him and his supporters of the burden of wondering what he should do in 2006.

If Warner runs against Sen. George Allen two years from now, it would be the ultimate make-or-break political gamble. Should Warner defeat the popular incumbent, he will prove that his 2001 statewide win was not a fluke, while at the same time proving that the Republican tide in the South is reversible. Serious contention for a place on the national Democratic ticket would be assured.

On the other hand, should Warner lose to Allen, his political career will be over. The sixth year of a presidency is usually rough on members of the president’s party. If Warner can’t win in a Democratic year, against a first-term incumbent, after a successful term as governor, the tarnish on his political star will be permanent.

And yet, not running against Allen may be the bigger gamble. By ducking a race with Allen, Warner will all but acknowledge that he is unsure about his ability to get votes in his own state. This is hardly the stuff of presidential runs. Moreover, Warner will leave the governor’s mansion in January 2006. Even given today’s extended presidential campaigns, that is still two full years away from the first primaries. It is hard to see how Warner can remain in the public eye for so long without a job.

Will points out in his column that Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan were all similarly unemployed when they successfully sought the Oval Office. However, Nixon and Reagan were already household names, which Warner most decidedly is not.

But the biggest obstacle to a Warner candidacy is not the calendar, or George Allen, or even Warner’s own vapid personality. To garner serious consideration, Warner is going to have to get past the primary voters in his own party, and to do this, he will have to deceive them.

Democratic primary voters are notoriously liberal, especially in the states that cast the first votes for president. In addition, Democratic activists are still hurting over their premature break-up with Howard Dean and short-lived romance with the “electable” John Kerry (and John Edwards). They will not easily give up their liberal predilections again.

If Warner is an attractive candidate for the Democratic nomination, it is because he is posing as a moderate as governor of Virginia. He claims to have made “more cuts in state government than anyone in Virginia history.” He paints his largest-ever tax increase as “fiscal responsibility.” He says that he supports the Laci and Conner law, making it a homicide to kill an unborn child. He ran on his support for Second Amendment rights, and even insists that he supports “reasonable” restrictions on abortion.

Of course, Warner also ran on a pledge not to increase taxes, so he clearly has no problem with deception. Even in his abortion position, he uses the weasel-words “reasonable restrictions” to permit himself to deceive both sides on this issue. But it is one thing to deceive voters in Virginia, with its limited number of media outlets, than it is to try to fool the national media, especially now that the media is far less friendly and accommodating to Democrats than it used to be.

To get into contention for president, Warner will have to be a moderate in Virginia, a liberal in Iowa and New Hampshire, and maintain different positions on guns, abortion, taxes and government spending, with the national media watching. Even given Warner’s inherent mendacity, this will be quite a challenge.

In 2008, as Republicans are searching for the next great leader, in the mold of Ronald Reagan or George W. Bush, the Democrats will be seeking the next great liar, a new Bill Clinton. Finally, a task worthy of Mark Warner.