Virginia prepares for 2005, 2006 and beyond

Later today, we hope, the 2004 campaign will be over. The winner will be declared, and, we can only hope, the loser will go away quietly and not decide on a futile 35-day fight like last time. All my instincts tell me that the presidential election is not going to be close, although I do not have the slightest idea who is going to win. So, I won’t make any last-minute predictions.

But either way, the battles between liberals and conservatives will continue, the terrorists will still be looking for ways to kill Americans, and Virginians will immediately get ready for another election campaign season. I am willing to make some predictions here. I’m imitating the weather experts who tell us exactly how much warmer the Earth will be 100 years from now, but can’t tell us what the weather will be like for the weekend.

The two parties’ choices for governor next year seem preordained. For the Democrats, Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine will almost certainly carry the banner. Kaine will likely run on his association with Gov. Mark Warner, who continues to bask in the credit of tax increases that really have not started to bite yet. Warner’s popularity probably makes Kaine an early favorite, but look for his standings to fall as the real pain of the state’s largest tax increase in history starts to appear, and Kaine has to do more explaining.

As the 2005 campaign progresses, look for the Republicans to focus on Kaine’s liberal record as mayor of Richmond, and his completely lackluster record as lieutenant governor. Virginia Democrats, for their part, are attempting to squeeze a campaign issue out of a lamentable conference call that occurred years ago.

Like Kaine, Republican Jerry Kilgore will likely be unopposed for his party’s nomination (barring a last-minute comeback try by former Gov. Jim Gilmore). Kilgore will base his campaign on two themes: the failures and false promises of the Warner Administration, and his own outstanding record as Attorney General and Secretary of Public Safety (under George Allen). Kilgore’s record as the state’s chief law enforcement officer will give him the edge over Kaine, over the long haul. Kilgore’s innovations, such as clamping down on domestic violence and identity theft, will help him with voting blocks that otherwise might lean Democratic.

Here in the Roanoke Valley, 2005 will bring races for the House of Delegates. At the moment, the incumbents all look even safer than is usual for incumbents, with one exception. William Fralin, who enraged many Republicans by voting in favor of the governor’s tax increase, may face a primary challenge. At least one national conservative group is searching for alternatives to pro-tax Virginia Republicans, but there is no sign that the group has found a potential challenger here in Roanoke. Fralin has worked very hard to mend fences with his local party activists, and this, along with the fact that some of Fralin’s strongest financial backers seemed to favor Mark Warner more than they ever did Jim Gilmore, are likely to discourage any intra-party challenge.

Hovering over the 2005 races will be a likely 2006 showdown between two popular former governors of Virginia. George Allen runs for re-election to the U.S. Senate two years from now, and the outcome of today’s presidential race will have an impact on that race. Should President Bush be re-elected, Allen will have to run in the sixth year of the Bush administration. This is traditionally a rough year for the party occupying the White House. It is well known that Mark Warner is eyeing Allen’s Senate seat, and a Bush re-election would make Allen more vulnerable. (This may explain why Mark Warner has done next to nothing for John Kerry this year. A Kerry victory likely spells the end of Warner’s political career)

Some weeks ago, Warner attempted to muddy the waters somewhat by suggesting that he might be interested in running for governor again, instead of running for the Senate, but there is actually no reason he could not do both. Should Warner defeat Allen in 2006, he could serve in the Senate until 2009, the earliest that he would be able to run for governor again. If Virginia has a Democratic Governor in 2009, and Warner is elected that year, he could resign his Senate seat secure in the knowledge that another Democrat would occupy it.

Whether or not he has ambitions to emulate Mills Godwin, who served two non-consecutive terms as Virginia governor, a run for Senate in 2006 makes sense for Warner. Given the fact that both Warner and Allen have national ambitions, and that both are known for campaign styles that are both bare-fisted and technically flawless, 2006 should be an exciting race.

So, there you have my early predictions for 2005 and 2006. I will make one 2004 prediction: Bob Goodlatte in a landslide.