George Allen's rising star

Even before the results of the 2004 presidential election were final, it became clear that one of the year’s big winners is Virgina's Sen. George Allen. Allen chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and thus he presided over the four-seat Republican pick-up this year. Each victory that George W. Bush wins in the U.S. Senate in the next two years can be attributed directly to Allen’s success.

Granted, the Republican path to an increased Senate majority was smoothed by the retirement of five southern Democrats in states that Bush was certain to carry with large margins. But there were also several Republican seats that seemed certain to switch to the Democrats (two eventually did), and national Democrats held out hopes of recapturing the Senate this year. Allen had to make some difficult choices, such as supporting liberal Pennsylvania Republican Arlen Specter, against a conservative Congressman. The strategy worked, in that the seat was saved for the party.

As Senatorial Committee chair, it was Allen’s job to decide where to put the committee’s resources. Which race is worth investing in? To which state should Bush, or Vice President Cheney, or George Allen, make a trip? Allen’s weekly e-mailed “Chairman’s Report” was largely a chronicle of his trips around the country, reflecting the decisions he had made about which Republicans could make the best use of such national assistance.

In addition to appearing with fellow Republicans, Allen was also gaining national exposure for himself. This visibility, plus his success in 2004, fuels speculation about Allen’s plans for 2008.

To assess Allen’s importance to the Republican Party, it is best to remember 1993, the year Allen was elected governor of Virginia. Bill Clinton had just been elected president. The Democrats held the House and Senate with comfortable margins. Democrats held most governorships in the United States. In the 1992 campaign, the Republicans seemed bereft of new ideas. Even the news media was far more one-sided then (no one had heard of the Internet), increasing the Democrats’ advantage.

While many analysts naturally point to the huge Republican sweep in 1994 as the starting point for the party’s current political dominance, it really began in 1993 with the election of George Allen.

As a candidate for governor, Allen was the first to enunciate some of the issues that redefined conservatism and brought Republicans back from near extinction. It was Allen who talked about abolishing parole, reforming education with testing and accountability, reforming the state’s welfare system, cutting taxes on families and small businesses, standing up for Second Amendment rights through strict enforcement of existing gun laws, and chipping away at abortion on demand by requiring parental notification.

Many of the issues that changed this decade’s political landscape existed only on the drawing board before Allen tried them here. In 1994, conservative Republican governors swept into office all over the country. Once in office, they largely imitated policies that Allen had already had in place for a year or more. It is hard to imagine a better spokesman for the modern Republican Party than George Allen.

Allen will have two significant challenges if he wishes to pursue national office in four years. First, he has to be re-elected to the Senate in two years. He will have to run in what may be a tough year for Republicans. And, he may have to run against Mark Warner, currently riding high in popularity polls in Virginia. His re-election is by no means a sure thing, and it is an absolutely necessary step to anything beyond 2006.

Second, and perhaps more important, Allen has to clarify his position on abortion. During his run for the Senate in 2000, I twice heard Allen attempt to explain his stand on this issue. Neither attempt was very successful. Allen said that he would not restrict abortion during the first trimester, since at that early point in the pregnancy, it is not certain that there is another person involved.

The bad news about a position like this is it can alienate both sides of the abortion debate. The good news is, once Allen learns more about the latest scientific findings on fetal development, he’ll learn that there is more and more reason to believe that human life starts at conception. Either way, Republican primary voters, even if they do not demand strict pro-life positions, will demand clarity on this issue.

There are other potential land mines as well. Having invested much of his political capital in Arlen Specter, Allen will suffer if Specter blocks Bush’s initiatives or judicial nominees. But Allen has the distinction of having defeated a female candidate, Mary Sue Terry, whom many thought was unbeatable. Perhaps this is a precursor to running against Hillary Clinton. Allen has also defeated a Southern moderate, Chuck Robb, in case the national Democrats go this route in 2008.

Allen may even have the perfect launch platform. In 2007, Virginia and the nation will celebrate the 400th anniversary of the Jamestown settlement. If re-elected, Sen. Allen will certainly play a leading role. What better way and time to suggest that Virginia should lead the nation once again?