Thursday, March 04, 2010
Metro columnist Dan Casey: 9th District race is sure to be full of twists and turns
Dan Casey is The Roanoke Times' metro columnist.
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@roanoke.com
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Dan Casey
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You've got to hand one thing to Del. Morgan Griffith: He sure knows how to create a political stir.
The Salem Republican and Virginia's house majority leader did it again last week, in announcing he would challenge Rep. Rick Boucher, D-Abingdon, in Virginia's 9th Congressional District.
For many reasons, this race promises to be among the most watched in Virginia.
Both men are lawyers, veteran lawmakers and legislative leaders. Each has deep roots and proven political strength in the areas they serve. Neither has ever lost an election.
The Republican-leaning (in presidential years) district stretches from the coalfields along the Kentucky border east to Martinsville and north to Clifton Forge. It includes all of the New River Valley, parts of Roanoke and Alleghany counties, and the cities of Covington and Martinsville.
What it doesn't include -- at least yet -- is Salem, where Griffith resides. He lives in the 6th District, which is represented by Rep. Bob Goodlatte, R-Roanoke County.
And that has left one big old question hanging out there.
What is Griffith up to? After all, during November's House campaign, Griffith subtly dissed Democratic challenger Carter Turner for being a relative newcomer in his House district.
"I understand he [Griffith] doesn't intend to live in the district he wants to represent," Boucher acidly observed in a conversation we had Monday.
But there is no requirement in state law that Griffith, first elected to office 16 years ago, live in the congressional district where he runs.
Besides that, Griffith told me last week, he lives as close to it as you can get. He said the "imaginary line" separating the 6th and 9th districts runs along the property line in his back yard near Hanging Rock Golf Course.
"One of my trees blew down last night and fell into the 9th District," Griffith told me Friday. "I'm not running for a seat in Alexandria. I'm running for a seat in Salem."
That latter statement may be a political Freudian slip that betrays what Griffith is really up to: a longer-term strategy to change the district boundaries and put himself in a better position to win there in the near future.
Griffith, 51, denies that and says he's running to win this year.
But consider this reasoning.
Beyond his unblemished election record, Griffith risks absolutely nothing this year in challenging Boucher, 63.
If Griffith loses, he'll keep his General Assembly seat, and he's almost assured to keep the potent House majority leader's post.
Meanwhile, there's one thing Griffith will win even if Boucher beats him: a map of exactly where in the 9th Boucher runs weak and where Boucher runs strong.
That would be invaluable, because it's beyond dispute that district will have to grow in area in the next round of reapportionment. The General Assembly will decide where and how.
Griffith will be in a position to help reconfigure the 9th District lines to include his own strongholds, and perhaps to exclude some of Boucher's.
And by the time it's all over, Salem will very likely fall in the 9th, blowing to smithereens any residency questions for at least the next 10 years.
For those reasons, I think that's what we're seeing right now: a smart, carefully plotted, entirely legal, longer-term strategy by Griffith to set himself up for a seat in Congress come 2012.
But in the shorter term, this one is going to be wild.
Boucher has a considerable bank of 9th District political allies he's amassed during 28 years in Congress and they will trash Griffith as a carpetbagger, an outsider and a political usurper.
And Boucher will tout his endorsement from the National Rifle Association.
Griffith will barnstorm through the southwestern corner of the state while shouting himself hoarse that Boucher "threw coal under the bus" by voting for the yet-to-be passed, carbon-limiting "cap and trade" legislation in Congress -- even though Boucher has a longer-winded justification for that.
Griffith also will run against President Obama, who is unpopular in many parts of the 9th.
So grab your popcorn and get your bets down now, folks.
This one's going to fun to watch.
