Bush win bodes well for Virginia GOP in '05

It was a big win for President Bush last week, and it was an especially impressive victory for him in Virginia. Bush took 51% of the nationwide popular vote – 3.5 million more votes than John Kerry – and had a 54%-45% margin in the Old Dominion.

The nation’s electorate is still very much divided. Even Bush admits that the red states and blue states are disconcertingly far apart. The same cannot really be said, however, about Virginia’s voters. Folks here continue to be reliably conservative, which is to say increasingly Republican in presidential election years.

Virginia – yet again – voted decisively for a Republican presidential nominee. Our commonwealth has done so in every national election since Dwight Eisenhower’s run in 1952, save LBJ’s ’64 win over Barry Goldwater.

The past week has had pundits and analysts poring over the results, breaking down national voter-behavior trends and prognosticating on the president’s next four years. Closer to home, however, some are beginning to look at Bush’s 9-point state win and wonder what it means for Virginia politics in both the near and distant future.

There were few surprises in the way Virginians voted. Nearly 3.2 million of the state’s eligible voters went to the polls last week. As has been the case for some time, Virginia’s traditionally Democratic cities went for Kerry. The left-of-center Massachusetts senator received 72% of the vote in Charlottesville, 70% in Richmond, 67% in Alexandria, 62% in Norfolk, and 60% in Portsmouth.

Kerry also did well in Fairfax and Arlington counties. While this comes as no great surprise to anyone, Republicans always nervously watch these jurisdictions because of their mere size. These two counties alone accounted for nearly one-fifth of the state’s total turnout.

Virginia’s traditional GOP strongholds heavily supported Bush. The Shenandoah Valley remains impressively Republican, with Augusta and Rockingham counties giving the president 74% of their respective vote totals. Bush pulled 69% of the vote in Shenandoah County, 65% in Page County, and 61% in Warren County.

The Richmond suburbs – Henrico, Chesterfield, Goochland, and Hanover – went for Bush by comfortable margins. (Henrico’s 54% was the least Bush received in these capital-area counties.)

Bush also did well across Southside – a region where Virginia Democrats had hoped Kerry would do well given its relatively high joblessness. Pittsylvania County gave the president 64% of its vote. Mecklenburg, Charlotte, and Halifax counties gave Bush 57-58%. Even hard-hit Henry County delivered 57% of its vote to Bush. The only major Southside spots opting for Kerry were the two cities: Martinsville, where 54% preferred the Democrat, and Danville, where Kerry eked out a 49% plurality.

Southwest Virginia also remained reliably Republican in a presidential election year. Bush did well in the far reaches: Lee, Washington, Scott, Grayson, and Russell counties. Kerry won labor-heavy Buchanan and Dickenson counties, though not in blowouts.

The demographics and voter trends of the Bush victory in Virginia will loom largely in the background of the ’05 General Assembly, which gets under way in mid-January. It is predictable that when the assembly convenes a mere two months after Bush’s win – and barely a week before his second inauguration – the legislature’s dominate Republicans will be feeling their oats. Given the impressive evangelical and otherwise conservative vote in Virginia for the president, it is assumed that socially conservative initiatives will have little trouble passing the House of Delegates and Senate. A state constitutional amendment prohibiting gay marriage and further restrictions on abortion are likely in the offing.

What’ll be interesting to watch, though, is how Gov. Mark Warner handles such socially conservatives issues should they land on his desk. He’s a moderate Democrat who’s won in the South and may have other state or even national ambitions. For the past week, down-and-out national Democrats have been wondering how they can appeal more to Southern and heartland voters whose faith often heavily influences their voting. Will the ambitious Warner veto a bill to constitutionally ban gay marriages, especially when 11 other states last week approved such bans overwhelmingly?

Looking further into next year, Bush’s big win in the Old Dominion plays especially well for Republican Jerry Kilgore, the state’s attorney general and the GOP’s all-but-certain nominee for governor. Kilgore served as head of Bush’s Virginia campaign, and he will work to tap into the voter dynamics that delivered the state so convincingly to the president. Also on the ballot a year from now will be picks for lieutenant governor and attorney general as well as all 100 House seats.

Many Virginia Democrats confidently predicted a better Kerry showing than what transpired. Their party remains in enough disarray that they’ll not be able to easily negate the statewide synergy Republicans and conservatives now enjoy.

If 2004 was good for Virginia Republicans, it’s likely that 2005 could be just as good. And the big Bush victory this year will have a lot to do with it.