Monday, October 27, 2008
Internet shows reach of rising sea
Tom Angleberger
The New River Valley-based reporter answers your questions Mondays in his column, What's on Your Mind?
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Q: I've heard about global warming causing a sea level rise of 2 to 4 feet. How far inland would that come?
-- James M. Warren, Roanoke
The good news is that we're safe here in the mountains.
The bad news is that the places we like to vacation -- Virginia Beach, the Chesapeake Bay and the Outer Banks -- won't be safe. If you think they're crowded now, wait until there's a lot less of them above water.
Of course, the amount we lose will depend on the amount that actually melts and that may depend on anything from Al Gore to heavenly intervention.
There are several tools available on the Internet to see what a warm, hot or broiling future might look like.
One very slick program uses Google maps and satellite imagery, so you can actually see the new sea level superimposed on an aerial photo. It uses the metric system, so instead of using 2 to 4 feet, I tried a range of 1 to 2 meters. That's about 3 to 6.5 feet.
At first look, it's not so bad. A map of the U.S. does not appear much different, there are just a lot of little marks along the coastline.
But when you zoom in, you see that those marks, which show areas that could be under water, are in some unfortunate places.
Some friends of my family have a house in Chincoteague. I zoomed in on their house and then raised the sea level to see the effects.
At 1 meter, the house is still high and dry. At 2 meters there might be an inlet in the back yard. A bigger concern, though, may be getting to the house at all, because many of the roads appear under water. The makers of the program note that it's not really precise enough for this sort of pinpoint accuracy, but it certainly makes it clear that more water will equal less land.
Elsewhere on the map, Virginia Beach would be all right, and Nags Head looks like it could survive, but Ocracoke would be an awful mess. Jack the sea level up to 3 meters (just under 10 feet) and you can forget about it.
I've heard some people downplay global warming, by noting that the earth's climate is cyclical and it's been through temperature changes before. That's true, but it doesn't make the picture any prettier.
"Reduction of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets similar to past reductions would cause sea level to rise ten or more meters," explains the U.S. Geological Survey. "A sea-level rise of ten meters would flood about 25 percent of the U.S. population, with the major impact being mostly on the people and infrastructures in the Gulf and East Coast States."
By the way, if all the glaciers on earth were to melt, the USGS estimates the sea level would rise by about 80 meters or 264 feet. Plug that number into the computer and Richmond is under water. But we're still high and dry. An excellent growth opportunity for Southwest Virginia!
On the Net: freegeographytools.com/category/global-warming
Q: Whatever happened to Skip Young, who played Wally Plumstead on "Ozzie and Harriet?"
-- M.B. Campbell, Roanoke
Remember that show "Growing Pains?" According to the Internet Movie Database, Skip Young's last role was a bit part on that show in 1989. Before that he had been "Zip" in "Lobster Man From Mars," a movie that may have reminded him of one of his first movies, 1958's "Earth vs. the Spider." He passed away in 1993.
On a happier note, David Nelson -- Ozzie and Harriet's son on the show and in real life -- celebrated his 72nd birthday on Friday.
Got a question? Got an answer? Call Tom Angleberger at 777-6476 or send an e-mail to woym@roanoke.com. Don't forget to provide your full name, its proper spelling and your hometown.
Look for Tom Angleberger's column on Mondays.
