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What a few months ago was thought to be a half-billion dollar shortfall in state revenue projections is now three times that. Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, has his hands full, as do the Republicans who are in control of both houses of the General Assembly. Under normal economic conditions – when Virginia’s economy would be bumping along with modest 4-5 percent increases in revenue – a split government would offer ripe conditions for money politics as usual. Lots of people would have their hands out. Many Democrats would want to spend all of the extra revenue while many Republicans would want to turn back the plunder to taxpayers. There would be others still who would want to do a little of both. Fur would fly as these three breeds of cat would go at it in spend-here-cut-there debate. That’s what happens in so-called good times, when there’s money to spend. Just think of the bloodletting that occurs when there’s an historic economic drought and the fight is over what, and what not, to slash, if not eviscerate. Which is where we are now. Virginia’s economy is like the national one, and the state’s tax revenues are in their steepest decline in four decades. It is true that politicians are responsible for some – but certainly not all – of the current budget crisis. While governors and legislators in recent years turned out budgets with record spending increases during times of unbelievable economic growth – remember the billion-dollar annual surpluses? – it also is true that our present predicament results in part from factors beyond any elected official’s control. There have been billions in state spending mandated by the federal government. Medicaid is arguably the biggest driver of Virginia’s growing budgets. This is federal health care money for the lower income that the state government must match; we dare not forgo it, especially in times of rising drug and other medical costs. There are also very high-dollar federal requirements in K-12 education, especially in special education, that Virginia must meet. And then there are expensive federal mandates in environmental protection, public health, transportation, mental health, and public safety, just to name a few. The list goes one. Add to these Washington-required spending increases the general effects on revenue of the national recession. Consumer confidence is down. When people stop spending in a spending-dependent economy, then revenue from state sales taxes go down. Likewise, when people stop buying widgets, then widget-making slows down, meaning corporate income taxes aren’t as hefty. Add to all of this a plummeting stock market, and you get horrific declines in personal wealth, which in turn prevents many from exercising stock options, thereby reducing personal income taxes. And then throw in a terrorist attack and never-ending saber rattling, a bunch of corporate accounting scandals, and gazillions of dollars worth of major bankruptcies. Perhaps you begin seeing how things way beyond a Richmond politician’s control – be he governor or legislator – can impact Virginia’s economy and send the state budget into a nosedive. Republican state Sen. Ken Stolle hit the nail on the head a week or so ago when he said we’re out of easy fixes. It was just six months ago that Warner and the Republican legislature agreed on a two-year budget that overcame a $3.8 billion shortfall by modestly raising some fees while also enacting seven and eight percent cuts in state agency budgets. The pain that was exacted on Virginians during last winter’s budget negotiations to fix a $3.8 billion deficit will be grossly compounded when legislators return to Richmond in January to fill another $1.5 billion hole. Yes, we still have a divided government. Democrats hold the governor’s and lieutenant governor’s offices while Republicans have a two-to-one majority in the House of Delegates and a more modest but still controlling one in the Senate. There is also a Republican attorney general. The atmosphere is still ripe for knock-down political fights. Especially when we’re heading into an election year when all House and Senate seats are up for grabs. But now is not the time for excessive political posturing and fighting. We can’t afford it. Literally. Now is a time for all Virginians – Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, the young and old, blacks and whites, suburbanites and country folk, state and private-sector workers, and everybody else – to come together for the good of our Commonwealth. Now is a time for legislators to work cooperatively with Warner to fashion the least painful budget solution possible in an economic downturn the likes of which haven’t been seen in 40 years. If there was ever a time for the laying down of political swords, it’s now. And if there was ever a time for Virginians – from Fairfax to Halifax, Accomac to Lee – to really try and understand the difficult decisions facing Warner and the General Assembly, it’s now. There are no easy answers or fixes. There will be painful cuts in the budget. There most certainly will be layoffs. There will be reductions in government services. These are facts. Asking politicians to tone it down may be asking a lot. When the stakes are high, there is a tendency to be more political, more demagogic, not less. And asking citizens who have gotten used to eating from fatted calves to be understanding when fewer calves show up at the trough, well, that may be asking a lot, too. But it’s incumbent upon us all, politicians and citizens alike, to recognize our good and bad civic instincts in times like these, and to try and make the good ones better and the bad ones less so. If there ever was a time for all Virginians to pull together, it’s now. The Bryant Archive The people versus the powerful in Northern Virginia |
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Copyright 2002