The governor’s political advisors had been warning him for weeks that it was imperative for Democrat Cathy Belter to win the Fairfax County seat vacated by Sen. Warren Barry, a once-in-a-blue-moon Republican whom Warner appointed to the Alcoholic Beverage Control Board.

But that didn’t happen. Belter, a Fairfax County school board member, lost. In fact, she got walloped. And state Democrats who just knew this one was in the bag for them – Belter was better funded and had more big guns supporting her – are now embarrassed.

The victor was Republican Ken Cuccinelli, a 34-year-old patent lawyer making his first bid for public office. He got 55 percent of the vote in what both campaigns said was a surprisingly high turnout (16 percent) for an August special election.

Obviously, the reason the governor’s advisors saw it as a high-stakes race was because its outcome inevitably would be seen as a barometer of support for the regional half-penny sales tax increase on the November ballot. Warner is championing the tax increase and many believe the referendum stands to define his administration for the history books.

The tax increase is for transportation projects in the traffic-clogged region. It’s projected to generate some $5 billion over the next 20 years.

Both candidates readily admit that the tax increase was the defining issue in the intense four-week campaign. Cuccinelli, a social and fiscal conservative supported by the like-minded, adamantly opposed the tax hike; Belter, backed heavily by public school advocates and tax-increase supporters, strongly favored it.

But it is certainly less than clear whether the outcome of this race is a true predictor of what voters will do on the tax referendum three months from now. A special election is a much different animal than a general election, and voting for people based on their views on many issues is a lot different than voting yes or no on a single issue.

What is clear is that opponents of the tax referendum have gained momentum. They have every right to spin the outcome of this race their way.

What also is clear is that Warner is losing a bit of his groove. With the full weight of his office behind the Belter campaign – running in his own political backyard, no less – he was beaten handily by a candidate Democrats snidely labeled “ultra-conservative” and “out of the mainstream of Northern Virginia politics.”

The Democrats’ tired old refrain of calling Republicans extremists is running thin. (Warner himself has been careful not to sing this song, at least not too loudly.) Yes, Cuccinelli is against tax increases, is pro-life, and supports Second Amendment rights and home-schoolers. So what.

These are positions generally taken by the majority of all Republicans in the House of Delegates and Senate – bodies both controlled by the GOP – so plain math says most Virginians aren’t all that offended by them.

Northern Virginia Democrats – not to mention the region’s muscular business community who pumped mega-bucks into Belter’s campaign – made light of Cuccinelli and his platform. In fact, many openly ridiculed him.

And then on Election Day, the kid kicked sand in their face. Kind of makes you chuckle, doesn’t it?

Perhaps this is what Al Gore meant by “the people versus the powerful.”

It’s been hard to find this past week a politician or pundit who doesn’t think Warner took it on the chin when the anti-tax-increase Cuccinelli won that special election. And it’ll be increasingly hard between now and November’s referendum to find anyone who won’t agree that Warner’s stock is on the line.

It’s too early to tell how Northern Virginians will vote on the tax hike. If the economy remains sluggish and people’s wealth continues to fall, then they may not be too keen on giving up even more of their money and contributing to their own hemorrhaging.

But the referendum will be the next chance for Warner to begin getting his groove back. If he doesn’t, he’ll have little political capital – stature – to get anything else done.

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