Virginia's Real Politics
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Preston Bryant is a Republican who has represented Lynchburg and part of Amherst County in the Virginia House of Delgates since 1996.

The budget is his biggest headache. Money is short to non-existent. And in an effort to keep the books balanced, Warner is looking more like a California governor than a Virginia one -- and it’s an appearance that’ll cost him politically in the long run.

Warner announced last week that by the end of the next fiscal year, the state’s revenues for its two-year spending plan could be more than $500 million short of projections. Others say it’ll be $600-800 million short. That’s bad. He’s called on state agencies to cut more. That’s good. But that’s not all he did.

California is currently in the throes of a $24 billion shortfall, which is nearly a quarter of their revenue. The amount they’re short is equal to Virginia’s entire budget for one year.

And worse, California’s Democratic governor, Gray Davis, is about to issue more than $11 billion in bonds -- that’s debt -- to help meet operating expenses. This will be the largest single borrowing act by a state government in U.S. history. And it’ll be on top of Davis’ proposed $4 billion in new taxes (which, interestingly, includes a 150% increase in the car tax).

Taxing and borrowing your way out of a hole may be the California Way, but it’s not the Virginia Way.

In Virginia, the preferred approach has always been to cut first, even if it’s excruciatingly painful. It’s never been to heavily increase taxes or go head-over-heels into debt, especially for operating expenses. We do our best to ride out the storms.

Our default cut-don’t-tax approach – the Virginia Way – is what we call common sense. It has served us well. Even in tough times, Wall Street continues to award Virginia with Triple-A bond ratings while other states’ ratings are being downgraded. But Warner is now starting to resemble Davis. Just a bit.

And George Allen must be loving it.

Remember candidate Warner on the issue of taxes? All he wanted was to have a little regional sales tax referendum in traffic-clogged Northern Virginia that would help generate money for their transportation woes. He even went on television late in the campaign and said that’s all he wanted. We all read his lips.

Then, barely a month into office, he championed a similar regional referendum to increase the sales tax in Hampton Roads, also for road- and bridge-building.

Then Warner showed keen interest in a statewide – yes, statewide – referendum to raise the sales tax for education. He was still just a month or so into office.

And now, as of last week, he’s “open to” raising taxes on cigarettes and booze, the so-called “sin taxes.”

Admittedly, Warner is in a tough spot. The budget news seemingly gets worse every time he opens up the ledger. And there’s something semi-admirable about his turning an apparent blind eye to the political consequences of his taxing ways.

Warner is a good businessman. He’s surrounded himself with a good cabinet. They all know the nuts and bolts of government and how to read a balance sheet.

But who, pray tell, is advising him on politics? Anybody?

Instead of looking to, say, Doug Wilder for a lesson on the politics of tax policy, he seems to be looking to Chuck Robb.

Wilder was governor during the early ’90s recession. He didn’t raise taxes to make ends meet -- he adhered to the Virginia Way and cut spending by more than $2 billion. Robb, by contrast, worked as a U.S. senator to balance the federal budget by voting for the big Clinton tax increase (among many others); he also talked about raising the gas tax by 50 cents a gallon to help meet transportation needs.

Wilder – to this day – is highly praised for his steering Virginia through the recession a decade ago. While other states were raising taxes, he didn’t.

What’s the line on Robb? Well, he’s an ex-senator. Made an ex in no small part by Allen reminding voters of his tax-loving ways. Of course, Allen also nailed Robb for cuddling up to Vermont’s liberal social values instead of upholding Virginia’s more traditional family ones.

It’s widely believed that Warner will want to take another crack at a U.S. Senate seat, and it most likely will be the one Allen holds. And Allen must be itching for the fight.

Warner has already developed a record on tax increases that would make even Robb blush – and he’s just over a half-year in office. When it comes to taxes, Allen already has enough fodder to do to Warner what he did with relish to Robb.

Allen is still the most popular Republican – and probably the most popular politician, regardless of party – in Virginia. He’s especially well-liked in the rural areas, those same rural battleground areas that Warner would like to call his own.

Allen made voters think Robb was from Vermont. He’ll make them think Warner is from California. And it’ll all be because of taxes.

There’s no higher honor than serving as Virginia’s governor. That’s good for Warner. Because it may well be the last office he holds.

Your thoughts?

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