roanoke.com
 


 News
   Front Page
   Roanoke Valley
   New River Valley
   AP News
   Neighbors

   Celebrations
   Politics
   Road Watch
   Special Reports
   Technology
 Sports
 Entertainment
 Columnists
 Outdoors
 Business
 Obituaries
 Community
 Travel
 Health
 Classifieds
 Dining Guide
 Yellow Pages
 jobs.roanoke.com
Search


MARCH 17, 2003

Warner's election year gamble

By PRESTON BRYANT

Preston Bryant is a Republican who has represented Lynchburg and part of Amherst County in the Virginia House of Delgates since 1996.
Every governor must -- yes, must -- work at party building. The last two Republican governors, George Allen and Jim Gilmore, made it a priority, and the GOP's successes over the past decade speak to their near-daily commitment to it.

During Allen's years in the governor's office, Republican numbers grew in the House of Delegates and Senate. His contagious enthusiasm for all things Republican inspired the faithful in every corner of Virginia to jump into the fray and slug it out for the good of the cause. But despite some gains, the GOP never quite reached majority status in either body.

That milestone would come during Gilmore's reign, when Republicans would take over both chambers for the first time in history. Gilmore raised a ton of money for Republican legislative candidates from his bully pulpit, and his efforts paid off. The Republicans' majority status came just in time to control the redistricting process. Today, the GOP has a two-to-one majority in the 100-member House and a comfortable 23-17 edge in the Senate.

Mark Warner, Virginia's first Democratic governor since Doug Wilder served a dozen years ago, is now necessarily getting full swing into party building. It's an election year when all 140 seats in the House and Senate are up for grabs, and he's looking all over Virginia for would-be Democratic candidates.

Warner's chief political responsibility these days is to both recruit Democrats for office and raise money for them. If he's not on the phone with potential candidates, he has them trekking to Richmond to meet with him personally.

The governor also has just hired Northern Virginia Democratic stalwart Mame Reiley to run his fundraising operation. His goal is to do for Democratic assembly candidates what Gilmore did for Republican ones. But Reiley herself admits that she's got a pretty tough row to hoe - raising money for Democrats these days is no easier than recruiting them.

When you think about it, Warner and Reiley's tasks really are rather unenviable. Both have to put the best spin possible on a Democratic Party that Virginians are evermore rejecting in General Assembly races. In trying to talk people into running as Democrats - and in trying to raise big bucks for them - it can only be presumed that they're doing so with straight faces.

The New Dominion is not only increasingly Republican -- it's increasingly conservative. In the House and Senate, Democratic numbers have been falling steadily for some 20 years, and thanks to redistricting two years ago, it's a safe bet that Democrats will have a lock on minority-party status for the next 20 years. It's an especially sad situation for D's in the House, where their ranks have been reduced to a mere 34.

It's arguable that everything Warner is doing today on behalf of his party is something of a dice roll. For by doing what he's expected to do for his party - recruiting and fundraising -- he's very much running the risk of alienating the Republican delegates and senators he so greatly needs to help him get his agenda through the assembly.

Warner's no-win situation comes in two parts.

If he puts forth only a modicum of effort in recruiting and funding Democratic candidates for the House and Senate -- all in the name of maintaining good relations with the Republican legislature that holds his fate - he'll alienate his political base, those Democratic activists (especially the more liberal ones) who expect him to be out there working tirelessly for the party that's worked tirelessly for him.

If, on the other hand, Warner does indeed move mountains to find Democratic candidates and fill their coffers only to watch them lose to entrenched Republicans, as is very likely to be the case, he'll have accomplished little more than unnecessarily irritating House and Senate powers who'll then retaliate in the next General Assembly session. The only thing worse for Warner, ironically, would be his candidates actually scoring a pyrrhic victory or two, for then Republicans would certainly whittle him down to nub for his remaining two years in office.

But few really expect Warner to soft-peddle his recruitment and fundraising responsibilities. After all, he's a party guy. Let's not forget his pedigree -- right out of law school, he worked for the Democratic National Committee as a fundraiser and he eventually became chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia. Party building is as much in his blood as it was, and still is, in Allen's and Gilmore's.

All things being equal, however, Republicans should expand their majorities in the House and Senate. Demographics favor Republicans. Electoral trends favor Republicans. And fundraising favors Republicans.

Warner's roll of the dice will come up short. Bet on it.

Let any elected or appointed official know what you think and how you feel by clicking here.

Your thoughts?

The Bryant Archive

Warner's election year gamble

A rolling stop at VDOT?

Too small a step for higher ed

Budget onion II

The Conservative House

Republicans remake Warner budget

Judging judges

MLK at 74

Budget onion

Call to post

New Year with no new taxes

Republican General Assembly should support black heritage, MLK programs

Trent Lott must resign as majority leader

Public health: our bounden duty

Towards a free market in higher education

Tax reform is overdue

Hear them roar

Referendum on taxation

What did Godwin do?

Gilmore and Sullivan

Warner's judges

Eastern stars

The wreck of old No. 39

It'll be Goode in the Fifth

The Wilder gamble

The politics of water

On Labor Day, coal miners and being a Republican

Shadow responsibilities

A time for all Virginians to pull together

The people versus the powerful in Northern Virginia

A media double standard?

Warner's California Ways

Bill Howell: the Un-Wesson









Copyright 2003
Privacy Policy | Contact Us