Preston Bryant is a Republican who has represented Lynchburg and part of Amherst County in the Virginia House of Delgates since 1996.

History has a way of repeating itself, as we all know. Economics, too.

Gov. Mark Warner is staring down a recessionary budget crunch the likes of which we do tend to see from time to time. He's now had a round of cuts in state agencies' budgets that has resulted in reduced services, and he's laid off more than 1,800 state employees. Much of what he's done has been based on a projected $1.5 billion shortfall in tax revenues, but now that it's looking like the deficit will pass the $2 billion mark, there certainly will be more cuts to come.

Warner, however, is certainly not the first chief executive to face such a budget conundrum. His good friend and fellow Democrat, Doug Wilder, who was governor just a decade ago, also had the misfortune of serving in a nationwide recession and had to come up with more than $2 billion in cuts.

But let's go back a little further and see how another highly regarded Virginia governor handled yet another budget crisis similar to the current one.

In 1974, Mills E. Godwin Jr. returned to the governor's office as a Republican for his second tour of duty. He'd previously served as a Democrat from 1966 to 1970 and was now the first governor to be elected twice by popular vote. (He still holds that distinction.) Godwin's first term was a very successful one, noted chiefly for his creation of the state community college system.

His second term, however, would prove more difficult. For in the early 1970s the nation's economy began to falter, and by the time Godwin returned to the governor's office the country was in a bad recession, wrung dry by the ongoing world oil embargo and stretched thin by runaway inflation.

The economic malaise that had settled across the land prior to Godwin's historic return ride to Richmond would challenge him for nearly his entire term. He'd see extreme shortfalls in the state budget as sales and income taxes plummeted while the costs of living and doing business soared. He would enact significant cuts to state agencies and prepare contingency plans to cut state aide for local governments and their school systems.

Shortly after Godwin took the oath of office in January 1974, he asked the General Assembly to stop all capital construction paid for out of the general fund -- about $75 million at the time -- and reallocate that money for state agencies' operating expenses. The legislature obliged.

The economy continued to sputter and by Christmas Godwin was forced to cut agencies' budgets by 3 percent. And by the time summer came around, he ordered another 2 percent cut. He'd also effectively put into place a hiring freeze, and prayed that he could get through the crisis without wholesale layoffs in the state employee ranks. In late 1975, as state revenues remained sluggish, Godwin reluctantly ordered a 5 percent cut in state money going to local schools.

This is about the spot Warner now finds himself. He's cut employees, agency budgets, and services. He's not yet touched schools, though he's expressed fears that it could come to that. And Warner has ruled out any general tax increases, though months ago he floated a trial balloon or two on increases to cigarette and liquor taxes. Now, those increases also appear to be tucked away as politically impractical.

Godwin was for many years a loyalist in the conservative Byrd Machine. He rose through the ranks and served in the House of Delegates and Senate, and then was elected lieutenant governor and finally governor. In his second term as governor, Godwin resisted a few calls for a general tax increase. Since he'd ushered in during his first term Virginia's first-ever state sales tax -- the revenue source designed to underpin his new community college system -- he probably didn't relish having yet another general tax increase as part of his legacy.

But Godwin did ask the General Assembly for increases in beer and liquor taxes as well as the end to some preferential tax treatment to state corporations. This, he hoped, would replace money lost for state construction projects. The legislature once again acceded to the governor's plea and slightly boosted the alcoholic beverage tax, but delegates and senators rejected his request to get at some previously exempted revenue from businesses.

Governors in Virginia have no taxing powers. They can't raise a single penny to keep the state's books balanced. Only the legislature can raise or reduce taxes. So Godwin did the only thing he could to address the budget crisis: he cut expenses. And that's all Warner can do today.

When Godwin appeared before the General Assembly's budget committees in late 1976, nearly two years into his term, he laid it on the line. After recounting all the cuts he'd made in budgets and services since taking the oath of office, he spoke bluntly to legislators about the fork in the road they'd now come upon.

Said Godwin: "We have, in short, reached the moment of truth. Unwelcome as it may be, the decision must be made as to whether the expenditure of appropriations already made will be still further and more drastically reduced, or whether the General Assembly will provide additional revenues."

If the legislature did not step forward with new revenue, Godwin assured them he'd have no choice but to cut money for local governments, public schools, and mental health agencies.

The General Assembly responded a few months later in the new year by accelerating payment dates for businesses to pay corporate income taxes and sales taxes. That brought in about $45 million. (You may recall that Warner and the legislature pulled this accounting trick earlier this year and most certainly will pull it again in coming years.)

But that was all they did. A general tax increase was not in the offing. Godwin had not proposed one, and the legislature wasn't going to either.

Fortunately, in the third quarter of 1977, the economy began showing new signs of life and state revenues picked up. And by the end of that year, Godwin and the legislature knew that the biennial budget actually would end up with a small surplus.

Warner has done a pretty good job of laying out the daunting budgetary circumstances he now faces. While some legislators say -- with fair justification -- that he hasn't shared with them all the budget-balancing options he's currently considering, no one can say that he's not making some difficult choices.

Warner is now putting together amendments to the current budget, which he'll present to the General Assembly finance and appropriations committees in late December. Everyone expects his budget message two months from now to be every bit as dour as Godwin's more than 25 years ago.

Warner, also like Godwin, will not propose any general tax increases. And don't expect the General Assembly do so either -- general or otherwise -- when returning to Richmond in January. Don't forget: 2003 is an election year for all delegates and senators.

Today's legislature is every bit as fiscally conservative and politically savvy as the one Godwin faced in the mid- to late-70s. More budget cuts are coming.

And another moment of truth is upon us.

Your thoughts?

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The wreck of old No. 39

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A time for all Virginians to pull together

The people versus the powerful in Northern Virginia

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